Ah yes it’s the time of year people look at rodents for short-term climate predictions It’s a fun tradition and has its place in society as long as people keep it in context – fun and Folklore This year, Punxsutawney Phil apparently saw his shadow, according to legend, that means six more weeks of winter.In contrast, General Beauregard Lee, a rodent forecaster in Georgia, points out that we are approaching an early spring, underscoring that it is at the Groundhog Day is more about tradition than science, however, there is a reliable source of seasonal forecast information ranging from 6 days to 3 months called the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

PUNXSUTAWNEY, PA – Sept. 2 FEBRUARY: Groundhog handler John Griffiths holds Punxsutawney Phil who did [] not see his shadow and say early or late spring during the 134th annual Groundhog Day celebrations on Jan. February 2020 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, ahead of Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the US and Canada000 people spent a night of festivities waiting for the sunrise and the marmot to exit from his winter den. When Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring comes, when he doesn’t see his shadow, causing Phil to stay above ground (Photo by Jeff Swensen / Getty Images)

NOAA CPC, according to its website, “is responsible for creating maps of seasonal climate prospects for one to thirteen months in the future Believe it or not, there is actually a science-based organization out there that does what the groundhog does so much for Reporting receives, and based on actual data and models, CPC also issues extended range weather forecast maps ranging from 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 days.The following two maps show, for example, the 3 month outlook for temperature and precipitation probability for the continental United States States These cards provide a rating for the period from February to April

These maps indicate that temperatures are likely to be above average for the next three months, and rainfall will be below average in the southern part of the country.The NOAA CPC website also has 1 month outlook, drought information and hazard outlook, without having to wait for that one special day of the year. My colleague Danielle Joyner Kelley, a Florida-based meteorologist, sums up CPC well. She wrote on social media, “The real“ groundhog ”for meteorologists: The Climate Prediction Center (except her are professional, trained scientists)”

The next 6-10 days are looking pretty cold by the way. CPC analysis reveals high probabilities of below average temperatures (graph above) Bitter cold air will plunge into the eastern United States, and the upper Midwest is likely the sweet spot for some of the coldest air of the season My friends in Florida may even have to break out their boots and a coat. It’s tempting to say that Phil was right about more winter, but I’m more inclined to say that it’s still winter and February in the northern hemisphere / p>

Dr J Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert on weather and climate, was President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in 2013 and is the director of the

Dr J Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert on weather and climate, served as President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in 2013 and is the Director of the University of Georgia (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program. DR Shepherd is the distinguished professor of the Georgia Athletic Association and host of Weather Geeks Podcasts from The Weather Channel, which is available at all podcast stores. Before the UGA, Dr Shepherd spent 12 years as a research meteorologist at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and was assistant project scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.In 2004, he was awarded a prestigious PECASE award at the White House.He also has major awards from the American Meteorological Society, Received by the American Association of Geographers and the Captain Planet Foundation Shepherd is often sought after by major media, the White House, and Congress as an expert on weather and climate. He has received over 80 peer-reviewed scientific publications and numerous editorialsS., MS. and PhD in physical meteorology from Florida State University

Groundhogs Day, Groundhogs Day

World News – USA – Experts in Prediction of Real Groundhog Day – NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2021/02/02/the-real-groundhog-day-forecast-expertsnoaa-climate-prediction-center/