IMAGE: PHICOR’s computer simulation model results show that reducing the contagious period of COVID-19 could prevent thousands of hospitalizations, millions of cases, and save billions of dollars
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New computer analysis suggests that a vaccine or drug that could shorten the duration of COVID-19 infection could potentially prevent millions of cases and save billions of dollars The study was conducted by Bruce Lee along with colleagues on the PHICOR team (Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research), based at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Policy and the Lundquist Research Institute of the Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, published in the open access journal PLOS Computational Biology

While much of the public talk about COVID-19 vaccines and drugs has centered on preventing or curing the infection, the vaccines and medications that may emerge can have more subtle effects on those who may not necessarily be able to prevent or cure still reduce how long someone is contagious

To clarify the potential value of shortening the infection period, Lee and colleagues created a computational model that simulates the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, they used the model to study such as a vaccine or drug that can reduce the infectious period, alleviate the clinical and economic effects of the disease

The simulations suggest that reducing the infectious period by half a day could prevent up to 1.4 million cases and over 99000 hospital stays save $ 209 billion in direct medical and indirect costs – even if only a quarter of people with symptoms have been treated – and conservative estimates of how contagious the virus can be. In the same circumstances, the infectious period will be cut by 3.5 days Avoid 4 million cases for up to 7 days Extending this treatment to 75 percent of all infected could prevent 297 million cases and save $ 856 billion

These results could serve as a guide for research and investment in the development of vaccines or drugs that shorten the SARS-CoV-2 infection period.They could also assist government agencies in planning the introduction of such products and provide cost information to support reimbursement guidelines to be determined for third-party payers

“There may be a tendency to overlook vaccines and other treatments that don’t prevent COVID-19 infection or cure disease,” says Lee. “However, this study has shown that even relatively small changes in people’s exposure time Significantly affect the transmission and spread of the virus, saving billions of dollars and averting millions of new cases “

“This study shows that vaccine and drug development efforts for COVID-19 should be focused on the impact of containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, not just on the benefits of an individual patient,” says James McKinnell, a contributing author on the study, “Widespread treatment combined with other preventive measures could prove to be a tipping point”

Use this URL in your reporting to get access to the freely available article in PLOS Computational Biology:
https: // Zeitschriftenplosorg / ploscompbiol / article? id = 101371 / magazinepcbi1008470

Quote: Lee BY, Bartsch SM, Ferguson MC, Wedlock PT, O’Shea KJ, Siegmund SS, et al (2020) The value of shortening the infection duration of a severe infection with the coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with acute respiratory syndrome PLoS Comput Biol 16 (12): e1008470 https: // doiorg / 101371 / journalpcbi1008470

Funding: This work was supported in part by the New York University Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy (CUNY) (BYL, SMB, MCF, PTW, KJO, SSS, SNC), the National Institute of General Medical, Natural Sciences ( NIGMS) as part of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) network under Grant 1 R01 GM127512-01A1 (BYL, SMB, MCF, PTW, KJO, SSS, SNC) It was also approved by the Agency for Research and Quality in Health Care (AHRQ) through grant R01HS023317 (BYL, SMB, MCF, PTW, KJO, SSS, SNC) from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) under contract number AID-OAA- A-15-00064 (BYL, SMB, MCF, PTW, KJO, SSS, SNC) and the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) via grant U01HD086861 (BYL, SMB, MCF, PTW, KJO) , SSS, SNC) and 5R01HD086013-02 (BYL, SMB, MCF, PTW, KJO, SSS, SNC) Funders had no role in the design of the study, the data collection and analysis, the decision to publish, or the preparation of the manuscript The authors of this manuscript are responsible for its content, including analysis of the data. Statements in the manuscript do not necessarily reflect or imply endorsement of the official views of the National Institute of Health, AHRQ or HHS

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Bruce Lee

World News – FI – Shortening the COVID-19 infection period could prevent millions of cases