There are some big Serie A games on the agenda this week, but none may be bigger than Juventus vs. Atalanta at the Allianz Stadium in Turin Both clubs seem to have started to put the ship back in order after a bumpy start Given that neither is within striking distance of leaders Milan, these are three big points on the line

Bookies expect Juventus to win, especially if Atalanta misses captain Papu Gomez, but Atalanta is counted at your own risk

Juve are currently unbeaten in Serie A, but that’s a bit misleading as the nine-time defending champions have drawn five of their first eleven games and two of those games have been played against newly promoted teams

Juve are currently in fourth place and need to feel comfortable where they are in the table considering how they have played so far.The old lady is fourth in Serie A with an 1137 Non-Penalty Goal Difference (npxGD) so their results adequately reflect how they have played so far

Juventus rely on Cristiano Ronaldo to create opportunities and that overconfidence can sometimes cause the offense to stagnate, in which case Juve dominates possession in the third opponent, only shooting cross by cross until someone scores can

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an expanded statistic that provides information on whether the results are based on sustainable factors such as the constant creation of goal chances or whether it is aspects such as luck or excellent goalkeepers

Juve’s most recent form is pretty solid with three wins and two draws against Lazio and Benevento aside from the disappointing draw against Benevento, the three wins look impressive from an xG standpoint as Andrea Pirlo’s side have scored at least two goals in 5 expected goals every competition

However, if you look at the tape of victories over Turin and Genoa, you can see that Juventus is not quite on the right track.There is no free flowing attack, there is plenty of possession that does not affect the quality of scoring opportunities p>

The expected target models will tell you that Juve dominates, but there is still much to be desired.Take the Torino game Juventus dominated in relation to xG, but both goals came from set pieces

The good news is that Paolo Dybala looked like he had found his game against Genoa. If he can score consistently, things will look brighter for the defending champions

After a Cinderella run last season, the boys from Bergamo got off to a slow start in 2020/21. Atalanta is currently in sixth place in Serie A, but is only four points behind Roma in sixth place and has in the overall standings one game across all eight teams in front of you

The big Bergamo story is the beef between star midfielder Papu Gomez and manager Gian Piero Gasperini. It sounds like Papu disappeared in the January transfer window, with some people ringing alarm bells around the Gewiss stadium / p>

I’m a huge fan of Papu, but the ball can just sit with him at times while the other players watch and wait for it to work its magic You could say the tactics are a bit stale and Atalanta from an influx of energy could benefit from other players like Ruslan Malinovskyi, but losing Papu is certainly not ideal

Consistent with the expected goals, Atalanta was on par with Juve04 npxGD with an 11, these numbers are a bit disappointing considering La Dea led Serie A at 862 expected goals for 2019/20 but they are still pretty good for a team going through a difficult phase

Atalanta followed up a tough win over Ajax with an all-out win over Fiorentina so La Dea could find some form Juventus haven’t given the bettors any reason to trust them as favorites so I think Atalanta has a value at 05 ( -105)

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World news – FI – Atalanta vs Juventus: Don’t trust the Italian champions as favorites

Source: https://www.actionnetwork.com/soccer/serie-a-odds-picks-predictions-juventus-vs-atalanta-wednesday-dec-16