For those of you who follow along with THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast in Canada, you know that we are taking a very statistically analytical approach to betting on the NHL so it makes perfect sense that the good people of The Action Network kindly allowed me to put pen on paper for various games throughout the season

The best part about focusing on metrics when it comes to handicap is that you can get an unbiased view of a game your youth team is involved in. As a fan of the Canucks from the days of Pavel Bure, I can do the Reading numbers in black and white and allowing them to dispel all prejudice when placing a bet

For this matchup between the Canucks and the rival Flames, the metrics tell two very different stories

Their numbers for the Canucks are not looking particularly good so far this season. My personal model, which we affectionately call “Let’s Do That Hockey” in the podcast, the Canucks has about 10% below the league average

Of course, the good news for the Canucks is that it’s early, so we have to take this with a grain of salt.This grain involves a crucial loss for the Oilers in the second of two consecutive games that opened the season that game contained a hat trick from Connor McDavid that would make any team salty

In those two games, the Canucks and Oilers combined scored 5 against 5 weird 47 High Hazard Chances (HDCs)

The Canucks competed against the Calgary Flames on Saturday night, and it was a whole different story for Vancouver when they only generated two HDCs in a 5v5 ratio, which the kids also call an outlier

Since the two HDCs are not just below the usual Canucks number, but about a quarter of the league average, I assume that Vancouver will be on the way to the mean in this very specific situation, as the teams have been in this one so far Season have done

The Flames won the game 3-0 on Saturday You only have five high risk chances of your own when at full strength and you haven’t implemented any of them. Where did the Flames’ goals come from? Power game in the first, power game in the second, power game in the third Nothing 5 against 5

So early in the season we have to dig a little more than just relying on what the model pulls out, but the model only suggests the Flames as -110 favorites with a 3-0 win on Saturday and a high profile one Overtime against Winnipeg has a lot to do with the fact that the current price is significantly higher, with only four highly dangerous chances at the start and five more on Saturday, the Flames don’t click exactly on 5 against 5, which is why I still have them in the league average

There’s one final thing to note that this game is a Saturday night rematch. With so many games to play against an opponent in two consecutive games this season, everyone is wondering if there will be an extra level to that Hinder rematch

So far there have been 11 completed rematches between the teams, and according to my quantitative analysis, the losing team has increased their probability of winning the second game seven times by 13% or better (an average increase of 28%) Three teams played with negligible change, and the one team that played worse in the second game (the Detroit Red Wings) actually won

It’s a small sample size, but if you just ignore these types of trends, it’s often too late to use them

There are many reasons to avoid the Flames as favorites here, but if we take a conservative approach and incorporate a profit increase of at least 10% for the Canucks that lost the first game, the Canucks’ chance of winning will be better than 50 %

On top of that, we may even see an improved goalkeeping matchup for the Canucks, provided Thatcher Demko kicks off and the Flames give Jacob Markstrom his first night off

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Canucks vs Flames

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Source: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/nhl-odds-picks-predictions-vancouver-canucks-vs-calgary-flames-monday-jan-18